Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x043b…0f36
crypto · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage80d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 51¢ 58¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 49¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$12 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 24 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 24 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 24 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$36
weather 39% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.0% -16.8% 46% 42% -13.6%
≤30d 24 -8.0% -16.8% 46% 42% -13.6%
≤90d 31 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 35% -27.5%
all 31 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 35% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 35% -27.5%
10% -30.4% 32% -34.4%
15% -37.2% 26% -40.8%
20% -43.3% 26% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.61 · official $21.61 (match) · 60 history records