Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x0438…9f67 crypto 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%73W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$45
14 days+$125
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$61
sports 12% −$39
other 5% +$126
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -3.4%
≤30d 50 +3.4% -6.5% 48% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 56 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 48% -9.5%
all 106 +1.5% -8.2% 69% 31% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 31% -8.8%
10% -16.9% 27% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 25% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$39 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses73 / 33
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 116
History coverage243d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +57%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$37 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $20 +$47 +229%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $101 +$65 +65%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $51 +$92 +180%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $81 +$27 +34%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $122 −$120 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$84 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $20 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $20 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $10 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 14¢ $10 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $20 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $20 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $20 4d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 21¢ $19 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $20 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 5d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 22¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $50.00 · 204 history records