Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0437…13d2 crypto 1806 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$522 (+1%) realized +$522 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate77%1515W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$726
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 -50.7% -55.4% 44% 20% -86.7%
≤30d 1420 -13.1% -21.3% 74% 39% -27.3%
≤90d 1973 -9.5% -18.2% 77% 39% -17.4%
all 1973 -9.5% -18.2% 77% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 39% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 19% -25.3%
15% -33.1% 10% -32.5%
20% -39.7% 5% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$24 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1515 / 458
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1973 / 1806
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1973 Trades
no open positions (456 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$9 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$7 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$7 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.50 · official $264.50 (match) · 3500 history records