Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0434…11dc sports 89 markets active 12h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-9%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%50W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$17
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 46% -19.3%
≤30d 89 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 46% -19.3%
≤90d 89 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 46% -19.3%
all 89 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 46% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 46% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 35% -27.1%
15% -38.8% 28% -34.1%
20% -44.8% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses50 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 −$2 -70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +57%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 +$1 +111%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 91¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 99¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 97¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 74¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 26¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records