trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 11% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 11% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 23 | -8.9% | -17.6% | 48% | 9% | -5.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.6% | 9% | -5.6% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 9% | -14.6% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 4% | -22.9% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 4% | -30.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 08 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 07 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | -28% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 29 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Dec 10 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 17 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $2 | −$1 | -33% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? | Mar 28 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $40 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | Mar 22 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $21 | +$19 | +89% |
| Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha | Mar 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Mar 19 | $10 | +$2 | +24% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or | Feb 28 | $9 | $0 | +0% |