Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x042e…a568 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$101 (+10%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 52% +14.2%
≤30d 42 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 52% +14.2%
≤90d 42 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 52% +14.2%
all 42 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 52% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 52% +14.2%
10% -19.0% 52% +3.3%
15% -26.8% 52% -6.7%
20% -34.0% 50% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$16 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $257 +$195 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$20 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$17 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$22 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $48 +$24 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$93 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$8 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $42 +$37 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$18 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$16 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$15 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$16 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$16 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $48 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records