Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x042c…cc7d politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$6
sports 25% −$5
crypto 10% $0
other 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 53 -9.9% -18.5% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage220d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 26 $86 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $1 $0 -25%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 12 $179 −$1 -1%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $1 $0 -55%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 31 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $1 $0 -33%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $2 $0 -14%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $348 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $263 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 03 $96 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $2 $0 -17%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 20 $2 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 36h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 36h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $84 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $86 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 19d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $86 101d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 108d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $86 111d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $86 116d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $86 123d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 124d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 125d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 125d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $84 125d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $84 126d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.93 · official $81.93 (match) · 238 history records