Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x0429…38bd crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$240 (+5%) realized +$240 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate80%16W / 4L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$999
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +39.4% +26.1% 100% 80% +25.9%
≤30d 20 +19.9% +8.5% 80% 65% +7.6%
≤90d 20 +19.9% +8.5% 80% 65% +7.6%
all 20 +19.9% +8.5% 80% 65% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 65% +7.6%
10% -1.9% 55% -2.7%
15% -11.4% 40% -12.1%
20% -20.1% 25% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$210 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses16 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage9d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $711 +$149 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $312 +$419 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $268 +$47 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $203 +$48 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $615 +$314 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $429 +$186 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $326 +$101 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $137 +$104 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $481 −$356 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $287 +$199 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $164 +$60 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$97 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$191 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$61 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$26 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $860 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $711 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $194 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $421 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $429 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $326 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $233 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $137 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $82 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $399 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $204 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $164 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $67 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $72 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $70 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $46 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records