Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x0429…e069 crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-4%) realized −$335 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%78W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$23
14 days−$58
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$258
sports 14% −$121
other 6% +$7
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -20.1% -27.8% 39% 37% -17.2%
≤30d 136 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 143 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 40% -10.1%
all 173 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 36% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 36% -13.7%
10% -26.1% 29% -21.9%
15% -33.3% 24% -29.5%
20% -39.8% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses78 / 95
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)173 / 176
History coverage338d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India India 65¢ 64¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka West Indies 60¢ 59¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$4 +34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $12 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$9 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 20 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -6%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +91%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $6 −$4 -68%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $25 −$19 -74%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $41 +$9 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$3 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 47m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 65¢ $35 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 60¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 0¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $8 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 27¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 82¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 82¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 19¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 33¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 33¢ $1 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 33¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.43 · official $53.43 (match) · 535 history records