Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0428…b167
crypto · 294 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$219 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$218 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses152 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)269 / 294
History coverage102d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 25 History 269 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days+$38
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+75%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 14? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$7 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$4 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$45 +4336%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +252%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3 +$14 +459%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 −$1 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $1 $0 -30%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $29 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 +$12 +1104%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 +$8 +366%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $3 +$19 +554%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $2 +$13 +666%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $1 +$10 +1042%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $7 +$20 +292%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $11 +$82 +749%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $7 −$6 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $7 −$4 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% +$7
other 30% +$243
politics 1% −$16
world 1% −$4
finance 0% −$12
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -50.8% -55.5% 11% 0% -54.8%
≤30d 54 +125.4% +103.9% 46% 41% +31.5%
≤90d 143 +46.1% +32.2% 43% 35% +5.5%
all 269 +25.5% +13.6% 57% 36% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 36% -2.8%
10% +2.7% 26% -12.1%
15% -7.2% 19% -20.6%
20% -16.3% 16% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.47 · official $30.15 (match) · 876 history records