Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0428…bdd0 world 9 markets active 7d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$4
world 25% −$1
crypto 16% −$14
politics 5% −$1
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 14% 14% -21.0%
≤90d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 14% 14% -21.0%
all 7 -14.9% -23.0% 14% 14% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 14% -21.0%
10% -30.4% 0% -28.5%
15% -37.1% 0% -35.4%
20% -43.3% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $83 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $24 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $25 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $26 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $27 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $29 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $30 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $3 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $13 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 9d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 9d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 15d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $8 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $15 15d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.94 (match) · 35 history records