Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0427…a652 weather 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$77
other 17% +$155
weather 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+99.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +120.6% +99.6% 57% 36% -11.5%
≤30d 14 +120.6% +99.6% 57% 36% -11.5%
≤90d 14 +120.6% +99.6% 57% 36% -11.5%
all 14 +120.6% +99.6% 57% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +99.6% 36% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here +80.5% 21% -19.9%
15% +63.1% 14% -27.7%
20% +47.1% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +268% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? No 90¢ 38¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? No 84¢ 8¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $192 +$158 +82%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 −$8 -8%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $347 −$167 -48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $448 +$100 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $346 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 48¢ $191 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $94 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $101 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 18¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 78¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $4 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $32 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $4 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $42 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $101 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $5 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $29 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.39 · official $7.49 (match) · 55 history records