Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0425…3c26 crypto 685 markets active 9h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,558 (-16%) realized −$4,558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate59%407W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$232
14 days−$232
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,846
sports 6% −$165
world 4% +$88
finance 3% −$942
other 2% −$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -3.6% -12.8% 74% 41% -11.6%
≤30d 303 -3.6% -12.8% 74% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 666 -28.1% -34.9% 59% 21% -33.6%
all 685 -22.2% -29.6% 59% 22% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 22% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 11% -30.1%
15% -42.5% 5% -36.9%
20% -48.1% 4% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$33 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses407 / 278
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)685 / 685
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 685 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$27 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$27 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$27 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$18 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$19 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$18 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$19 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $58 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $36 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $35 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $40 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records