Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0425…5d14 sports 89 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$597 (-13%) realized −$597 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$210
14 days+$3
30 days−$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$243
other 20% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 45% -19.8%
≤30d 88 +5.2% -4.9% 49% 49% -22.1%
≤90d 88 +5.2% -4.9% 49% 49% -22.1%
all 88 +5.2% -4.9% 49% 49% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 49% -22.1%
10% -14.0% 49% -29.5%
15% -22.3% 49% -36.3%
20% -29.9% 45% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$51 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage104d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$33 +71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $94 −$93 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$63 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$97 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 +$29 +91%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $55 +$48 +86%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $33 +$44 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $42 −$41 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 +$23 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 +$17 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $28 +$36 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $30 −$2 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $43 −$43 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $45 +$40 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $60 +$29 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $65 −$42 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$38 +106%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $28 +$44 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$45 +226%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 −$5 -16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 +$28 +70%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $38 −$38 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $34 +$25 +71%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $72 +$60 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $32 −$32 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $51 +$32 +63%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $46 −$45 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $30 +$20 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $29 −$29 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $50 +$40 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 +$19 +64%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 09 $32 −$32 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $81 +$57 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $13 +$12 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 22¢ $39 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 44¢ $41 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $94 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $62 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $32 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 2d
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $47 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $76 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $55 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $42 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $72 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $49 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $32 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $33 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $28 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 48¢ $28 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $30 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $59 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records