Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x041f…743f other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%50W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$51
world 2% −$1
other 0% −$7
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -18.3% -26.1% 11% 11% -9.8%
≤90d 104 -9.5% -18.2% 33% 30% -9.7%
all 139 -6.1% -15.0% 36% 34% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 34% -9.7%
10% -23.2% 27% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 18% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$502) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses50 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage124d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $226 $226 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,930 −$3 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $238 −$4 -2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $590 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $2 $0 +11%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$4 +124%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $1 $0 +34%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $226 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 2d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $227 2d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $226 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $226 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $224 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $224 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 10d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 10d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 11d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $234 11d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $238 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $236 18d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $236 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $236 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $236 20d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 20d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 20d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 85¢ $3 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 20d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $108 20d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $138 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.99 · official $226.99 (match) · 566 history records