Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x041e…0d7d crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+10%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
≤30d 10 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
≤90d 10 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
all 10 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 40% -27.4%
10% -37.6% 40% -34.3%
15% -43.7% 40% -40.7%
20% -49.2% 40% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records