Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x041e…9641 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$107 (+4%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$2
crypto 9% +$5
other 5% $0
sports 4% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 3 +30.0% +17.6% 100% 33% +17.2%
all 5 +18.0% +6.7% 60% 20% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 20% -5.9%
10% -3.5% 20% -14.9%
15% -12.8% 20% -23.1%
20% -21.4% 20% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$1 · ×31.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.63 per $1 lost it wins $47.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage98d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 22 $126 +$3 +2%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves May 20 $118 +$101 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 05 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $129 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $126 33d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Hornets 53¢ $118 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $115 98d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,100 98d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,101 98d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,102 98d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,103 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.65 · official $128.65 (match) · 11 history records