Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x041d…4125 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$102 (+3%) realized +$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate100%22W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 5% -6.7%
≤30d 22 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 5% -6.7%
≤90d 22 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 5% -6.7%
all 22 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 5% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 5% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -15.6%
15% -23.2% 0% -23.8%
20% -30.7% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses22 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $91 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $234 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $232 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $228 +$9 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $225 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $223 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $218 +$11 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $216 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $213 +$8 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $210 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $208 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $191 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $203 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $241 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $234 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $84 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $133 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $232 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $237 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $228 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records