Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x041d…d609 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 49L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$7
sports 19% −$5
tech 15% −$4
politics 14% −$3
crypto 8% $0
world 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 81 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage226d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 04 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $18 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January? Feb 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026? Jan 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $270 $0 -0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025? Jan 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 30? Dec 30 $200 $0 -0%
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025? Dec 30 $38 $0 +1%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Dec 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 14 $190 $0 -0%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Dec 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? Dec 11 $5 $0 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 08 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 29 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Katy Perry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $1,302 −$1 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Nov 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will Etuate Lavulavu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the ele Nov 29 $120 $0 -0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 29 $655 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Nov 29 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 28 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 28 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 47d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 76d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 79d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 85d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 85d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 105d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 108d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 115d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 128d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $5 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.73 · official $63.73 (match) · 431 history records