Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x041a…b1b7 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$110 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$10
other 32% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.6% +20.9% 64% 55% +26.9%
≤30d 11 +33.6% +20.9% 64% 55% +26.9%
≤90d 11 +33.6% +20.9% 64% 55% +26.9%
all 11 +33.6% +20.9% 64% 55% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.9% 55% +26.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.3% 36% +14.7%
15% -1.3% 36% +3.7%
20% -10.9% 36% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.15 per $1 lost it wins $4.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage METANOIA WOLVES 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Exact Score: South Africa Jun 28 $16 +$45 +283%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Will Canada win on 2026-0 Jun 28 $43 +$27 +63%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $18 −$2 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 −$3 -13%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $27 +$16 +60%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 28 $29 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $25 +$4 +17%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $39 −$19 -50%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $18 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY METANOIA WOLVES 16¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY METANOIA WOLVES 38¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY METANOIA WOLVES 61¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Guara Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY METANOIA WOLVES 63¢ $51 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Exact Score: South Africa SELL 98¢ $61 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Will Canada win on 2026-0 SELL 97¢ $70 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Exact Score: South Africa BUY 25¢ $16 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Will Canada win on 2026-0 BUY 59¢ $43 15h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $44 16h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe SELL Carstensz 80¢ $0 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 62¢ $27 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe SELL Carstensz 80¢ $27 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 85¢ $29 18h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 18h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 18h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 18h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $16 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $21 21h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $18 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 28 history records