Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0417…642b
other · 39 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage455d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 0 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by Friday? Apr 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 29 $8 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$1
world 34% −$2
politics 14% +$2
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $2 8h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $30 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $10 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $10 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $31 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $14 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $16 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 8d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $10 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 39 -2.2% -11.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records