Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x0417…9248 sports 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%67W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days−$22
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$88
other 17% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +118.4% +97.6% 100% 100% +97.6%
≤30d 75 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 48% -6.8%
≤90d 86 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 51% -4.5%
all 124 -2.9% -12.2% 54% 49% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 49% -10.5%
10% -20.6% 44% -19.1%
15% -28.3% 31% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 25% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$44 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses67 / 57
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 127
History coverage148d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $42 +$50 +118%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Tom Gentzsch vs. Rinky Hijikata: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$4 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $440 −$38 -9%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $100 +$31 +31%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 07 $46 −$6 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $302 +$17 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $199 +$146 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $25 +$25 +97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 05 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $72 +$18 +24%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $25 +$18 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 03 $54 −$9 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $351 +$86 +25%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $57 +$43 +76%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 03 $19 +$11 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $74 +$64 +87%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $20 +$32 +160%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 02 $87 +$47 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $78 +$24 +31%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $20 +$16 +81%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5) Jun 01 $3 +$2 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $96 −$79 -83%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Jun 01 $70 +$40 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $214 −$63 -29%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) May 31 $63 +$37 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $57 −$26 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $109 −$108 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca May 31 $26 +$18 +68%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $65 +$42 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $25 +$25 +102%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $259 +$78 +30%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 30 $25 −$25 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $120 +$57 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $72 +$20 +27%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) May 29 $14 +$26 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Alex de Minaur vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 29 $84 −$82 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) May 29 $129 −$127 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $33 +$11 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $75 +$18 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 29 $75 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $52 +$23 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $92 2m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $42 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 52¢ $71 30h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will I BUY 52¢ $55 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $48 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will K BUY 38¢ $51 9d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 38¢ $20 12d
Tom Gentzsch vs. Rinky Hijikata: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 56¢ $5 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $21 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 27¢ $20 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $35 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 73¢ $54 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 26¢ $82 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 26¢ $86 14d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 53¢ $15 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $56 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $253 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $223 14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $131 14d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) SELL Colorado Rockies 67¢ $40 14d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 76¢ $46 14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 75¢ $100 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 67¢ $51 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 26¢ $78 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 26¢ $2 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 26¢ $2 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 26¢ $5 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 26¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 26¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records