Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0413…a2df crypto 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$299 (-13%) realized −$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%46W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day84.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$149
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -18.3% -26.1% 26% 25% -16.0%
≤30d 180 -18.4% -26.2% 26% 25% -16.8%
≤90d 180 -18.4% -26.2% 26% 25% -16.8%
all 180 -18.4% -26.2% 26% 25% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 25% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 24% -24.8%
15% -39.7% 18% -32.1%
20% -45.6% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses46 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day84.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $126 +$232 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$108 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $69 +$83 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $96 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$20 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$16 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $58 −$24 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $59 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$4 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 750 history records