Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x040f…83e9 world 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$2
other 7% +$4
crypto 6% −$1
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 34 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage452d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $17 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $52 −$3 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $95 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $54 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $16 $0 +3%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will Heathrow Airport reopen by Saturday 8 AM GMT? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 21 $3 +$4 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $52 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $52 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $53 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $51 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $53 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $14 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records