Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x040e…8edf politics 192 markets active 503d ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,286 (+3%) realized +$38,286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%136W / 58L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$6,509per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$67,985
tech 26% +$3,793
other 11% +$75,907
crypto 8% +$32,386
world 5% +$71,545
sports 2% −$10,341
weather 2% +$1,341
economics 0% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 194 +60.3% +45.0% 70% 43% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.0% 43% +6.8%
10% +31.1% 34% -3.4%
15% ← realistic here +18.5% 28% -12.7%
20% +6.8% 22% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,704) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +90% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,454 vs −$1,566 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38,286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses136 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 192
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$6,509
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
TikTok sale announced before April? Sep 23 $355 +$145 +41%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Sep 23 $650 +$350 +54%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Sep 23 $959 +$71 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Sep 23 $1,675 +$825 +49%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? Sep 23 $87 +$3,536 +4054%
Will Trump privatize USPS in first 100 days? Sep 23 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Sep 23 $3,375 +$273 +8%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Sep 23 $2,887 +$2,113 +73%
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29? Sep 23 $2,954 +$2,716 +92%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Sep 23 $25,543 +$24,457 +96%
Will Jimmy Butler get traded? Mar 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Lebron James be traded? Mar 11 $636 −$43 -7%
Lily Phillips breaks record for sex in one day? Mar 11 $950 −$828 -87%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July? Mar 11 $1,086 −$398 -37%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Mar 11 $5,335 −$5,335 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Mar 11 $12,606 −$10,456 -83%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Mar 11 $15,339 −$2,111 -14%
Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Mar 11 $62 +$5 +8%
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? Mar 11 $852 +$144 +17%
Lily Phillips sex event cancelled? Mar 11 $485 +$1,015 +209%
Hawk Tuah OnlyFans by January 31? Mar 11 $1,559 +$82 +5%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Mar 11 $1,925 +$575 +30%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 31 $8,609 −$8,609 -100%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 31 $94 +$160 +170%
John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA? Jan 31 $684 +$581 +85%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $955 +$15 +2%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 24 $1,457 +$8,282 +568%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 22 $93 +$362 +388%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $308,614 +$2,258 +1%
Trump renames Gulf of Mexico to "Gulf of America" in 2025? Jan 21 $1,697 −$1,697 -100%
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days? Jan 21 $10,741 +$329 +3%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 21 $2,704 +$296 +11%
Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet? Jan 21 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inaugurati Jan 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1,654 −$1,654 -100%
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden? Jan 21 $1,523 −$1,519 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $119 −$106 -89%
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration spee Jan 21 $1,101 −$1,101 -100%
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $5,675 −$5,675 -100%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $8,783 −$7,114 -81%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Jan 21 $13,646 −$13,646 -100%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Jan 21 $30,320 −$6,655 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $174 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $191 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $258 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $261 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $265 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $265 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $265 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $255 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $128 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 52¢ $98 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,215 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 54¢ $1,352 502d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 54¢ $3,992 503d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 54¢ $868 503d
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL Yes 51¢ $3,622 503d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $77 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $12 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $8 504d
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? BUY No 85¢ $200 504d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records