Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x040d…1a5e other 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,128 (-20%) realized −$23,425 · open −$1,703
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%317W / 791L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$779est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$4,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20,008
7 days−$28,147
14 days−$29,373
30 days−$32,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$11,386
sports 43% −$3,193
crypto 5% −$473
world 1% −$1,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 -85.2% -86.6% 9% 5% -62.8%
≤30d 477 -62.6% -66.1% 22% 11% -34.3%
≤90d 528 -53.9% -58.3% 26% 12% -30.9%
all 1108 -28.6% -35.4% 29% 21% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.4% 21% -30.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 19% -37.5%
15% -47.2% 18% -43.5%
20% -52.4% 18% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$76 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$4,312
Realized−$23,425
Unrealized−$1,703
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses317 / 791
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$779
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1108 / 847
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,406 $1,465 +$59 (+4%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 61¢ 49¢ $925 $747 −$178 (-19%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 14¢ $1,995 $422 −$1,573 (-79%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $321 $359 +$38 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $355 $215 −$140 (-40%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 89¢ $196 $187 −$9 (-5%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $112 $158 +$46 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 64¢ 10¢ $833 $135 −$697 (-84%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $427 $87 −$340 (-80%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $222 $82 −$139 (-63%)
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? No 38¢ 43¢ $58 $65 +$8 (+13%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 42¢ 5¢ $473 $56 −$417 (-88%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 58¢ $17 $53 +$36 (+208%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 52¢ $17 $49 +$32 (+186%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 86¢ $19 $31 +$12 (+66%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 71¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 76¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 4¢ 20¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+354%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-34%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Capitals vs. Flames Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Rangers vs. Penguins Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 12PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Stars vs. Blues Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Kings Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 9AM ET Jun 17 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Sharks vs. Canucks Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Canucks vs. Wild Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Austria vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 12PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? Jun 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 11AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $84 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $52 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $60 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $83 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $85 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $21 31m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $7 35m
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? SELL $3,000 50¢ $1 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $73 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $81 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 82¢ $82 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $83 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $84 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $50 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $35 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $51 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $6 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $10 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $12 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $7 36m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $87 37m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $17 37m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $71 37m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $13 38m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $13 38m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $11 39m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $11 39m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $11 40m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $7 40m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $7 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,312.43 · official $4,312.43 (match) · 3500 history records