Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x040c…e016 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1
other 28% $0
crypto 12% $0
politics 12% +$3
tech 7% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 42 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage447d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $16 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $10 +$3 +24%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $3 $0 -5%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14? Apr 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $30 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $15 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $13 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $23 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $33 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $9 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $24 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $7 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $23 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $7 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $30 29d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 98¢ $13 356d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 95¢ $12 381d
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec SELL No 96¢ $13 381d
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec BUY No 96¢ $13 381d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 382d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $13 383d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 383d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $13 393d
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? BUY No 98¢ $12 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.16 · official $30.16 (match) · 111 history records