Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x040b…f11a world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,360 (-22%) realized −$3,360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$2,377
14 days−$2,308
30 days−$2,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$3,043
politics 8% −$125
sports 6% −$115
other 5% −$218
tech 3% +$45
crypto 1% +$24
finance 1% −$100
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 12% -6.8%
≤30d 10 -3.9% -13.1% 60% 20% -6.2%
≤90d 10 -3.9% -13.1% 60% 20% -6.2%
all 29 -31.1% -37.7% 38% 14% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 14% -17.4%
10% -43.6% 7% -25.3%
15% -49.1% 7% -32.5%
20% -54.1% 3% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -41% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$225 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3,360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage276d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1,000 +$19 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $3,659 +$177 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 −$75 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,000 +$87 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $3,000 −$2,578 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -74%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jun 10 $162 +$24 +15%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 10 $455 +$45 +10%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelt Nov 09 $99 −$99 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Oct 27 $399 −$88 -22%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Oct 27 $400 −$119 -30%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 11 $247 −$107 -43%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 11 $666 −$666 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Oct 11 $496 +$42 +8%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles To Oct 09 $148 −$148 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovic Oct 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tallon Griekspoor vs Jannik Sinner Oct 05 $198 +$98 +50%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 03 $458 −$39 -9%
Will Trump say "Beautiful wife" or "Wonderful wife" at Charlie Kirk Me Oct 02 $4 −$4 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 27 $183 +$21 +12%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Sep 25 $304 +$7 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 22 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 22 $3 $0 -8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Ge Sep 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $1,180 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $500 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $500 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $1,083 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 92¢ $1,000 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 84¢ $921 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,000 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $1,015 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 12¢ $422 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 83¢ $1,000 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 85¢ $1,000 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 78¢ $1,000 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $3,792 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $400 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $100 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $100 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $100 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $100 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.47 · official $2.92 (match) · 101 history records