Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x0408…3d68 weather 1137 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 169d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,410 (+11%) realized +$1,410 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%536W / 760L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$444
7 days−$443
14 days−$443
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$1,519
other 6% +$170
world 1% −$18
sports 0% +$5
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -84.2% -85.7% 4% 4% -92.3%
≤30d 165 -84.2% -85.7% 4% 4% -92.3%
≤90d 436 -8.1% -16.9% 34% 26% -9.0%
all 1296 +12.5% +1.8% 41% 30% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 30% -2.2%
10% -8.0% 23% -11.6%
15% -16.9% 19% -20.1%
20% -25.0% 15% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1,410
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses536 / 760
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1296 / 1137
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on December Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on December Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on De Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on Decem Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on December Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on December 24? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on December 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hanks win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on December Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on December Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on December 14? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on December 21? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 53-54°F on December Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Seiver win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November Jun 16 $2 −$3 -140%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on December 25? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on De Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on De Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on December Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on December Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on December Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on De Jun 16 $1 −$2 -210%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 22? Jun 16 $17 −$18 -106%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on No Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on No Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on December 1 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on De Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on December 29 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on No Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nacho Barbero win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on No Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on December Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $5 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $6 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $4 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 18h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 13? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 4¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 20¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 20¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 67¢ $10 64d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? SELL No 40¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? SELL No 40¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? SELL No 6¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 64d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12? BUY No 3¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 64d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 64d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 64d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 65d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 65d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 12? BUY No 21¢ $1 65d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 12? SELL No 59¢ $6 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.35 · official $14.35 (match) · 3500 history records