Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0404…4719
weather · 1649 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,015 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,013 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$683
Realized−$1,013
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1517 / 141
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1658 / 1649
History coverage80d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 31 History 1658 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$814
7 days−$765
14 days−$785
30 days−$735
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $75 on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 92¢ 91¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 84¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 79¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 13 $0 +$1 +807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 16? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 January 26-1? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 12? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 January 26-1? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 26? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on January 18? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 January 19-25? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 January 26-1? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on January 16? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on March 16? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 31? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Brisbane International: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 10? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 43% −$145
crypto 40% −$137
other 12% +$19
sports 3% +$28
world 2% +$48
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% +$5
politics 0% −$8
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $29 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -14.3% -22.4% 78% 4% -24.9%
≤30d 672 -4.6% -13.7% 90% 4% -14.1%
≤90d 1658 -2.7% -12.0% 91% 7% -12.0%
all 1658 -2.7% -12.0% 91% 7% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 7% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 2% -20.4%
15% -28.1% 1% -28.1%
20% -35.1% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.97 · official $682.61 (match) · 3500 history records