Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x0403…a7ee other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,853 (+35%) realized +$7,803 · open +$1,050
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate85%46W / 8L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$12,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2,817
politics 28% +$4,477
world 20% +$924
culture 14% +$753
tech 1% −$114
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +21.6% +10.0% 100% 100% +12.8%
≤90d 8 +38.2% +25.0% 100% 75% +84.6%
all 54 +42.6% +29.0% 85% 61% +41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.0% 61% +41.0%
10% +16.7% 30% +27.5%
15% +5.4% 22% +15.2%
20% -4.9% 17% +3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$72 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.64 per $1 lost it wins $14.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$12,460
Realized+$7,803
Unrealized+$1,050
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses46 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions33
Markets (closed)54 / 87
History coverage474d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 75¢ 92¢ $3,077 $3,792 +$716 (+23%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 50¢ 40¢ $1,496 $1,185 −$311 (-21%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $802 $992 +$190 (+24%)
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $679 $714 +$35 (+5%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $549 $598 +$49 (+9%)
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $537 $590 +$53 (+10%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 91¢ 97¢ $440 $468 +$28 (+6%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $418 $458 +$39 (+9%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 86¢ 86¢ $428 $428 −$0 (-0%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 86¢ 98¢ $345 $391 +$46 (+13%)
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? No 94¢ 96¢ $243 $247 +$4 (+2%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $208 $236 +$28 (+13%)
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $197 $217 +$20 (+10%)
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 97¢ $167 $194 +$26 (+16%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 80¢ 96¢ $160 $193 +$33 (+20%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $222 $189 −$33 (-15%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $170 $185 +$15 (+9%)
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 82¢ 84¢ $172 $176 +$4 (+2%)
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $166 $174 +$9 (+5%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 97¢ $153 $168 +$15 (+10%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 73¢ 85¢ $137 $161 +$24 (+17%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $151 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 83¢ 94¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+13%)
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $114 $131 +$17 (+15%)
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 86¢ 98¢ $68 $77 +$9 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $85 +$15 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $588 +$163 +28%
Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 23 $226 +$44 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $1,037 +$163 +16%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Apr 16 $75 +$2 +2%
Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? Mar 29 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 26 $2,031 +$3,969 +195%
Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? Mar 21 $122 +$3 +2%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Mar 06 $924 +$119 +13%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $257 +$27 +11%
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? Mar 01 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Feb 25 $224 +$7 +3%
French election called by June 30, 2026? Jan 20 $199 +$33 +16%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $10 +$7 +72%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 01 $20 +$2 +12%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $20 +$4 +18%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Jan 01 $375 +$124 +33%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Jan 01 $378 +$202 +53%
Macron out in 2025? Jan 01 $921 +$129 +14%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 04 $1,217 +$434 +36%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Nov 23 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Wales win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Macron out by October 31, 2025? Nov 01 $140 +$10 +7%
French election called by October 31? Oct 31 $253 +$15 +6%
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? Oct 31 $370 −$141 -38%
French election called by December 31? Oct 26 $46 +$61 +132%
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? Oct 26 $10 +$1 +13%
French election called by October 17? Oct 16 $474 −$261 -55%
Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France? Oct 11 $456 +$94 +21%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $140 +$20 +14%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $250 +$18 +7%
French election called by October 10? Oct 08 $50 −$9 -18%
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? Oct 06 $83 +$217 +262%
Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition Oct 06 $300 +$116 +39%
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? Oct 06 $183 +$2,317 +1265%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France? Sep 10 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Éric Lombard be the next Prime Minister of France? Sep 10 $63 +$8 +12%
French confidence vote fails? Sep 08 $1,020 +$14 +1%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $5 +$3 +61%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 28 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025? Aug 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Aug 18 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 29 $20 +$1 +7%
F1 Austrian Grand Prix: Safety Car? Jun 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 29 $38 −$14 -38%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? Apr 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen? BUY No 86¢ $4 1h
Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen? BUY No 82¢ $26 1h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $62 6h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $28 8h
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $61 15h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 86¢ $344 19h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 21h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 22h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 29h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 36h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 36h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 40h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 47h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $91 2d
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 84¢ $371 2d
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY Yes 54¢ $11 4d
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 202 BUY No 95¢ $29 6d
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 202 BUY No 95¢ $5 6d
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 202 BUY No 95¢ $76 6d
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 202 BUY No 95¢ $123 6d
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 202 BUY No 89¢ $5 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 80¢ $160 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $200 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $212 8d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 11d
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential BUY Yes 52¢ $189 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 28¢ $70 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,460.18 · official $12,461.49 (match) · 792 history records