Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03fe…0fe5 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$4
politics 22% −$1
sports 5% −$28
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -2.4% -11.7% 11% 7% -10.1%
all 103 -2.4% -11.7% 11% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 7% -10.1%
10% -20.2% 7% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 5% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage86d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $140 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 12h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.87 · official $37.87 (match) · 276 history records