Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03f9…c50b sports 833 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,033 (-6%) realized −$955 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%389W / 441L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$253
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$796
other 9% −$20
crypto 7% −$167
finance 3% −$53
politics 3% −$101
weather 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 43% -11.5%
≤30d 90 -3.8% -12.9% 38% 28% -20.3%
≤90d 830 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 41% -15.4%
all 830 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 41% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 41% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 37% -23.5%
15% -31.7% 34% -30.9%
20% -38.4% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$955
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses389 / 441
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions3
Markets (closed)830 / 833
History coverage55d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Down 50¢ 30¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Down 45¢ 24¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Down 49¢ 14¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.51 · official $95.28 · 2526 history records