Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
03 0x03f7…c0cc sports 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,164 (+4%) realized +$5,213 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%257W / 282L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$2,250
politics 25% +$57
other 20% −$2,399
world 13% −$554
crypto 2% +$265
tech 0% +$680
finance 0% −$39
economics 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -26.5% -33.5% 55% 31% +1.2%
≤30d 91 +4.6% -5.4% 37% 23% -8.6%
≤90d 282 -9.1% -17.7% 45% 23% -14.5%
all 539 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 31% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 31% -12.9%
10% -17.1% 27% -21.2%
15% -25.1% 23% -28.8%
20% -32.5% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$105 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$3,206
Realized+$5,213
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses257 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions31
Markets (closed)539 / 569
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$227
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 76¢ 87¢ $382 $435 +$53 (+14%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 82¢ $189 $246 +$57 (+30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $202 $226 +$24 (+12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $227 $219 −$8 (-3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $218 $202 −$16 (-7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $236 $195 −$40 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $374 $185 −$189 (-51%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $178 $175 −$3 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 35¢ 44¢ $105 $130 +$25 (+24%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 24¢ $33 $121 +$88 (+267%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $102 $113 +$11 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $112 $104 −$8 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $77 $90 +$14 (+18%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $126 $87 −$39 (-31%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 7¢ 14¢ $42 $86 +$45 (+107%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 20¢ 60¢ $24 $73 +$49 (+200%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 57¢ 16¢ $156 $42 −$114 (-73%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 25¢ 34¢ $16 $21 +$6 (+36%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 9¢ 6¢ $25 $17 −$7 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $766 +$160 +21%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $27 −$24 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $612 +$375 +61%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $272 −$72 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $335 −$273 -81%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $941 +$61 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $679 +$230 +34%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $313 +$47 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $105 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $236 +$69 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,355 +$74 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $490 +$210 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $207 +$3 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $575 +$469 +82%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 10 $341 −$47 -14%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $414 −$332 -80%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 09 $268 −$49 -18%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $581 +$4 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$10 -33%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Jun 07 $44 +$3 +7%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $335 −$48 -14%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 07 $536 −$24 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $112 +$19 +17%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $241 −$19 -8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $225 +$45 +20%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 03 $70 −$31 -44%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 03 $103 −$15 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $240 −$240 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $198 +$256 +129%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $73 −$52 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $492 23m
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $98 4h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $17 14h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $3 15h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 19¢ $19 15h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $18 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $25 18h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 3¢ $0 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $126 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $157 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $196 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $118 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $137 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 42h
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 56¢ $42 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 56¢ $70 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $9 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $2 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $15 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $27 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,205.51 · official $3,205.58 (match) · 3500 history records