Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03f2…3bad other 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-9%) realized −$39 · open −$108
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%79W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$63
14 days−$83
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$62
other 46% −$314
world 1% −$10
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +7.6% -2.6% 25% 22% -20.1%
≤30d 118 +2.1% -7.7% 37% 25% -17.0%
≤90d 172 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 31% -17.7%
all 172 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 31% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 31% -17.7%
10% -20.2% 23% -25.6%
15% -27.9% 20% -32.8%
20% -35.0% 14% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses79 / 93
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)172 / 184
History coverage43d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 14¢ $90 $16 −$74 (-83%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +510%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $77 −$2 -2%
Mario Pašalić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +388%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$8 -76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +275%
New Zealand to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +649%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +249%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1666%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $10 29m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $15 30m
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes $10 1h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 23h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $1 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 16¢ $1 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $76 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 28h
Mario Pašalić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.53 · official $50.55 (match) · 377 history records