Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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03 0x03ed…c077 sports 939 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,653 (-3%) realized −$1,699 · open −$954
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%493W / 378L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$9,481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$249
other 41% +$2,063
culture 8% −$453
politics 4% −$84
world 3% +$1,239
crypto 1% −$116
economics 0% +$150
tech 0% −$8
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +39.1% +25.8% 76% 76% +17.3%
≤30d 108 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 53% +8.5%
≤90d 374 -4.1% -13.3% 58% 51% -2.7%
all 871 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 52% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 52% -5.7%
10% -18.4% 41% -14.7%
15% -26.3% 34% -23.0%
20% -33.5% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$56 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$9,481
Realized−$1,699
Unrealized−$954
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses493 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions68
Markets (closed)871 / 939
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 871 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $940 $964 +$25 (+3%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 68¢ $1,035 $945 −$90 (-9%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 70¢ $1,015 $873 −$142 (-14%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $660 $698 +$38 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 57¢ $540 $598 +$57 (+11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 80¢ $449 $415 −$34 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 76¢ $399 $363 −$37 (-9%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $350 $353 +$2 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 35¢ $294 $293 −$1 (-0%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $278 $277 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $274 $274 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $247 $251 +$4 (+2%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 44¢ $235 $217 −$17 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 28¢ $233 $155 −$78 (-33%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 89¢ 91¢ $146 $149 +$3 (+2%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 46¢ $221 $149 −$72 (-33%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $129 $136 +$8 (+6%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 83¢ 81¢ $135 $132 −$3 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 46¢ $134 $130 −$4 (-3%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 86¢ $112 $119 +$7 (+6%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 70¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 79¢ 81¢ $104 $106 +$3 (+2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 50¢ $146 $104 −$42 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $45 +$111 +248%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $633 +$140 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $48 +$34 +70%
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $108 +$139 +129%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $351 +$62 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $130 +$26 +20%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $90 +$34 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +105%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $49 +$34 +69%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $127 +$55 +44%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 11 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $48 +$21 +43%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $27 +$20 +76%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 09 $24 −$3 -12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$5 -29%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $60 +$71 +119%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 05 $347 +$128 +37%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $26 +$16 +63%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $166 +$8 +5%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $181 +$65 +36%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 01 $74 +$25 +34%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $8 +$7 +86%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $117 +$69 +59%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1,018 +$252 +25%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 01 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $220 +$87 +40%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 16m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $137 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $7 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $5 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $4 18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $4 18h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $130 34h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $66 34h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $66 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $4 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $5 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $5 44h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $63 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $12 2d
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,480.78 · official $9,496.26 (match) · 3500 history records