trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 40% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 50% | 29% | -7.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -5.8% | -14.7% | 50% | 31% | -7.8% |
| all | 17 | -5.3% | -14.4% | 53% | 29% | -7.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.4% | 29% | -7.8% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 18% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 0% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -36.9% | 0% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $77 | $76 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $63 | $63 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $52 | $52 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $41 | −$1 | -1% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Jun 18 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $64 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $70 | +$6 | +8% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -76% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +30% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Jun 07 | $2 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 07 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | −$1 | -35% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-28? | May 12 | $2 | +$1 | +28% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +2% |