Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03eb…1d8e other 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$34
sports 22% −$17
politics 10% −$9
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage131d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $142 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $498 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $467 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $352 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $681 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $48 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $49 3h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 7h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 8h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 10h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 11h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $49 16h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 21h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 22h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 29h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 31h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 31h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 33h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 37h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 39h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 43h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1332 history records