Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03ea…c6f9 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,873 (-2%) realized −$2,873 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate28%33W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,041per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$27
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$24
politics 35% −$56
sports 16% −$2,765
world 4% −$27
tech 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -18.6% -26.4% 6% 0% -12.9%
all 120 -2.8% -12.1% 28% 9% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 9% -11.6%
10% -20.5% 9% -20.1%
15% -28.2% 8% -27.8%
20% -35.2% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,566) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$37 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$863
Realized−$2,873
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses33 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,041
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $864 $863 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 20 $393 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,953 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,889 −$7 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,452 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,821 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,447 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,951 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,526 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $344 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $734 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,193 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 11 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,003 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,747 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 04 $871 +$2 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,777 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,478 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,927 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,909 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,373 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $3,614 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $209 $0 -0%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $997 −$997 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 28 $168 −$10 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $393 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $393 5h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $467 5h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $468 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,618 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,491 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,494 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,365 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,367 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,424 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,426 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,501 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,504 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $690 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $692 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,393 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,395 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 17d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 17d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,037 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,538 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $863.16 · official $863.16 (match) · 388 history records