trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | No | 52¢ | 54¢ | $88,871 | $91,434 | +$2,564 (+3%) |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 37¢ | 80¢ | $19,876 | $43,289 | +$23,413 (+118%) |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 78¢ | 80¢ | $24,342 | $25,107 | +$765 (+3%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | Spurs | 48¢ | 48¢ | $9,955 | $10,059 | +$104 (+1%) |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | Canadiens | 56¢ | 0¢ | $1,909 | $0 | −$1,909 (-100%) |
| Lightning vs. Canadiens | Canadiens | 48¢ | 0¢ | $44,954 | $0 | −$44,954 (-100%) |
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | Golden Knights | 59¢ | 0¢ | $68,069 | $0 | −$68,069 (-100%) |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | Ducks | 49¢ | 0¢ | $26,249 | $0 | −$26,249 (-100%) |
| Sabres vs. Bruins | Bruins | 46¢ | 0¢ | $69,000 | $0 | −$69,000 (-100%) |
| Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) | Golden Knights | 29¢ | 0¢ | $13,179 | $0 | −$13,179 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 63¢ | 0¢ | $110,815 | $0 | −$110,815 (-100%) |
| Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) | Canadiens | 38¢ | 0¢ | $9,232 | $0 | −$9,232 (-100%) |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | Penguins | 47¢ | 0¢ | $15,763 | $0 | −$15,763 (-100%) |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 | Over | 55¢ | 0¢ | $121,490 | $0 | −$121,490 (-100%) |
| Wild vs. Stars | Stars | 54¢ | 0¢ | $96,238 | $0 | −$96,238 (-100%) |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Golden Knights | 49¢ | 0¢ | $226,906 | $0 | −$226,906 (-100%) |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Hurricanes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $12,456 | $0 | −$12,456 (-100%) |
| Spread: Ducks (-1.5) | Ducks | 30¢ | 0¢ | $363 | $0 | −$363 (-100%) |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Hurricanes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $13,265 | $0 | −$13,265 (-100%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Spurs | 48¢ | 0¢ | $6,223 | $0 | −$6,223 (-100%) |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55¢ | 0¢ | $4,949 | $0 | −$4,949 (-100%) |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Knicks | 47¢ | 0¢ | $14,270 | $0 | −$14,270 (-100%) |
| Flyers vs. Hurricanes | Flyers | 30¢ | 0¢ | $5,633 | $0 | −$5,633 (-100%) |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Hurricanes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $2,425 | $0 | −$2,425 (-100%) |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Hurricanes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $7,372 | $0 | −$7,372 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | Jun 12 | $1,909 | −$1,909 | -100% |
| Lightning vs. Canadiens | Jun 12 | $44,954 | −$44,954 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | Jun 12 | $68,069 | −$68,069 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | Jun 12 | $26,249 | −$26,249 | -100% |
| Sabres vs. Bruins | Jun 12 | $69,000 | −$69,000 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $110,815 | −$110,815 | -100% |
| Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $9,232 | −$9,232 | -100% |
| Penguins vs. Flyers | Jun 12 | $15,763 | −$15,763 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 | Jun 12 | $121,490 | −$121,490 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Stars | Jun 12 | $96,238 | −$96,238 | -100% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $12,456 | −$12,456 | -100% |
| Spread: Ducks (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $363 | −$363 | -100% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $13,265 | −$13,265 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jun 12 | $6,223 | −$6,223 | -100% |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Jun 12 | $4,949 | −$4,949 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Hurricanes | Jun 12 | $5,633 | −$5,633 | -100% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $2,425 | −$2,425 | -100% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $7,372 | −$7,372 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 | Jun 12 | $1,795 | −$1,795 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 | Jun 12 | $43,139 | −$43,139 | -100% |
| Stars vs. Wild | Jun 12 | $92,000 | −$92,000 | -100% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | Jun 12 | $63,058 | −$63,058 | -100% |
| Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $1,490 | −$1,490 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | Jun 12 | $141 | −$141 | -100% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $163,857 | +$120,467 | +74% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $24,046 | +$25,822 | +107% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 09 | $226,907 | −$226,906 | -100% |
| Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) | Jun 09 | $904 | −$904 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 08 | $14,496 | −$14,270 | -98% |
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 07 | $196,000 | +$204,000 | +104% |
| Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) | Jun 06 | $13,395 | −$13,179 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 05 | $117,205 | −$431,565 | -368% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 31 | -81.1% | -82.9% | 10% | 10% | -54.4% |
| ≤30d | 32 | -81.7% | -83.5% | 9% | 9% | -64.8% |
| ≤90d | 32 | -81.7% | -83.5% | 9% | 9% | -64.8% |
| all | 32 | -81.7% | -83.5% | 9% | 9% | -64.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -83.5% | 9% | -64.8% |
| 10% | -85.0% | 9% | -68.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -86.5% | 9% | -71.3% |
| 20% | -87.8% | 9% | -74.1% |