Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03e7…d5b4 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$54
crypto 35% +$7
sports 27% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.7% -2.5% 68% 64% +13.3%
≤30d 28 +7.7% -2.5% 68% 64% +13.3%
≤90d 28 +7.7% -2.5% 68% 64% +13.3%
all 28 +7.7% -2.5% 68% 64% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 64% +13.3%
10% -11.9% 54% +2.5%
15% -20.4% 29% -7.4%
20% -28.2% 21% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 45¢ 54¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$45 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$9 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 −$14 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$18 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.57 · official $3.57 (match) · 62 history records