Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03e4…7cd0 crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+11%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%68W / 51L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$124
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$209
sports 24% −$39
other 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 55% -2.9%
≤30d 117 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 55% -2.9%
≤90d 119 +7.2% -3.1% 57% 55% -2.9%
all 119 +7.2% -3.1% 57% 55% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 55% -2.9%
10% -12.3% 48% -12.2%
15% -20.8% 39% -20.7%
20% -28.6% 32% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses68 / 51
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage41d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$10 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$22 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$26 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$15 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$18 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$15 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$7 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$23 +436%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$45 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $53 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $57 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records