Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03e4…2d3d weather 763 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate59%444W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$18
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$52
crypto 11% −$16
tech 0% −$32
sports 0% $0
other 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 12% -10.4%
≤30d 131 -5.5% -14.5% 53% 21% -11.6%
≤90d 304 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 22% -9.4%
all 752 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 24% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 24% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 20% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 17% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses444 / 308
Open positions11
Markets (closed)752 / 763
History coverage155d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+284%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $83 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 +$8 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $28 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 1¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 69¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $14 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $14 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $83 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.97 · official $136.94 (match) · 2348 history records