Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x03e1…e180 other 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$751 (+5%) realized +$1,006 · open −$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%100W / 78L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day53.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days−$165
14 days+$289
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$119
world 19% −$129
politics 18% +$37
tech 13% +$309
sports 5% +$110
finance 5% +$56
crypto 1% −$1
weather 1% −$42
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +4.3% -5.6% 53% 31% -11.5%
≤30d 178 +23.1% +11.4% 56% 35% -6.3%
≤90d 178 +23.1% +11.4% 56% 35% -6.3%
all 178 +23.1% +11.4% 56% 35% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 35% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here +0.7% 26% -15.3%
15% -9.0% 21% -23.5%
20% -17.9% 15% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,522
Realized+$1,006
Unrealized−$255
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses100 / 78
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions113
Markets (closed)178 / 291
History coverage24d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day53.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 113 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? No 55¢ 75¢ $99 $136 +$37 (+38%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 73¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 51¢ 51¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 58¢ $111 $98 −$12 (-11%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 78¢ $74 $87 +$13 (+17%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 40¢ 34¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $79 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? No 18¢ 10¢ $126 $73 −$52 (-42%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $89 $69 −$21 (-23%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 82¢ 98¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 39¢ 44¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 51¢ $62 $52 −$10 (-17%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? No 31¢ 32¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 22¢ 76¢ $14 $50 +$35 (+243%)
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 73¢ 71¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 60¢ $26 $46 +$20 (+80%)
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 62¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? OpenAI 25¢ 18¢ $58 $42 −$16 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 20 $42 −$22 -53%
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Sta Jun 20 $46 +$21 +46%
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 20 $54 +$32 +59%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $178 −$11 -6%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $23 +$13 +57%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $53 +$7 +12%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $4 +$13 +376%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $141 +$14 +10%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$31 +61%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$4 -10%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 19 $9 +$7 +75%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 19 $41 −$12 -29%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $39 +$4 +10%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $14 −$5 -36%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 19 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$3 -6%
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Jun 19 $34 −$12 -35%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +75%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $56 −$4 -6%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 19 $90 +$24 +27%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 19 $64 +$10 +16%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 19 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $70 −$53 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 18 $98 +$29 +29%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 18 $43 −$2 -5%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 18 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 −$5 -19%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $47 +$23 +48%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic p Jun 18 $11 −$2 -22%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Jun 18 $62 +$4 +7%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 0m
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 69¢ $50 1m
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 24m
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $24 38m
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Sta SELL No 85¢ $5 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5 BUY No 73¢ $50 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 54¢ $49 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 55¢ $50 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 39¢ $38 2h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 39¢ $12 2h
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 42¢ $50 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 2h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 2h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL No 96¢ $11 3h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY No 89¢ $50 3h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 59¢ $50 3h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 5h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,521.92 · official $2,518.46 (match) · 1416 history records