Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03db…2282 other 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 23% −$18
culture 8% −$7
politics 7% −$5
world 5% −$4
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage128d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $407 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $654 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $183 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 12m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 5h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 6h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $50 7h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 9h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 12h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 18h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 20h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 25h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 27h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 34h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 43h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1303 history records