Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x03d3…0a7d politics 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 39% −$17
sports 9% +$26
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 122 +1.1% -8.5% 6% 3% -9.5%
all 138 -1.4% -10.8% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage115d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $562 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $320 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $262 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $327 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $292 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $317 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 15 $308 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $249 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $317 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $334 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $257 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $289 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $296 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $272 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $320 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $289 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 26h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $43 26h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $43 29h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 29h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 11d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $322 21d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $322 23d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $320 23d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $298 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $298 27d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $260 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.98 · official $46.98 (match) · 376 history records