Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03d0…3e77 crypto 995 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$551 (-2%) realized −$828 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%471W / 520L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day109.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$680
7 days+$690
14 days+$650
30 days−$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$819
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 56% +7.9%
≤30d 991 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 991 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 46% -12.8%
all 991 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 46% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 42% -21.2%
15% -33.4% 40% -28.8%
20% -39.9% 34% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$828
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses471 / 520
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)991 / 995
History coverage25d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day109.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 991 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 40¢ 28¢ $51 $35 −$16 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 0¢ 72¢ $0 $33 +$33 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$23 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$67 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$28 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$128 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$20 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$49 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $85 +$54 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$20 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.30 · official $90.74 · 3307 history records