Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03d0…d647 weather 1008 markets active 6d ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,097 (+46%) realized +$5,121 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%352W / 720L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$450
weather 26% +$160
world 24% −$671
politics 13% −$49
finance 3% +$55
tech 2% −$43
culture 2% +$165
economics 1% +$71
sports 1% +$37
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +307.3% +268.6% 24% 24% -19.2%
≤30d 143 +186.4% +159.1% 24% 22% -32.4%
≤90d 1068 +46.6% +32.6% 33% 28% -12.8%
all 1072 +46.3% +32.4% 33% 28% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.4% 28% -12.7%
10% +19.7% 25% -21.1%
15% +8.1% 21% -28.7%
20% -2.5% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$5,121
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses352 / 720
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions43
Markets (closed)1072 / 1008
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 1072 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 46¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+115%)
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No 69¢ 77¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat? No 21¢ 64¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+207%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 11¢ 39¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+255%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 89¢ 18¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-79%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 38¢ 2¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-94%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No 22¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? No 32¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+77%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 19¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+416%)
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No 69¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 70¢ 91¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+233%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 10¢ 61¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+541%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 8¢ 17¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+108%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? No 27¢ 39¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 17 $0 +$11 +14717%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 17 $0 +$10 +9727%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 17 $0 +$7 +5205%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the RSF capture Kadugli by January 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 22? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +222%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jean Smart (Hacks) win Best Actress – Television Musical or Comed Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (Feb Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gianni Infantino attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -173%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +20933%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 17 $0 +$4 +1388%
Will "Mr Nobody Against Putin" win Best Documentary at the 2026 BAFTA Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win <30 seats in the Sloveni Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Jun 17 $78 −$86 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22 Jun 17 $0 +$3 +2981%
Will PPI YoY be between 3.0% and 3.9% in May? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Neil Gorsuch attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 6? Jun 17 $0 +$11 +46396%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Fe Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Adam Sandler - The Price is Right win Best Director of a Reality Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on February 28 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March Jun 17 $0 +$18 +12360%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 17 $86 −$87 -101%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in May? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Indepe Jun 17 $0 +$1 +610%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -12°C or below on January 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY Yes 99¢ $96 5d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 5d
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 6d
Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 9d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 89¢ $9 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $19 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $6 12d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 39¢ $19 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $21 13d
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 14d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 17d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $6 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $5 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 10¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.90 · official $68.49 · 3500 history records