Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x03cc…7b1e world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% $0
other 8% −$3
sports 4% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage472d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $71 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Dec 15 $7 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $36 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $36 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $15 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $16 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $32 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $26 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $32 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.91 · official $34.91 (match) · 86 history records