Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

03 0x03cb…309e sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$272 (-50%) realized −$282 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate35%6W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$56

7 days+$50

14 days+$50

30 days+$50

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-31.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+52.9%	+38.3%	71%	71%	+49.6%
≤30d	7	+52.9%	+38.3%	71%	71%	+49.6%
≤90d	7	+52.9%	+38.3%	71%	71%	+49.6%
all	17	-24.0%	-31.3%	35%	35%	-58.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.3%	35%	-58.5%
10%	-37.8%	35%	-62.5%
15%	-43.9%	29%	-66.1%
20%	-49.4%	24%	-69.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +65% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -72% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$31 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage

Net worth$52

Realized−$282

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses6 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)17 / 21

History coverage301d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Over	61¢	100¢	$12	$20	+$8 (+64%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Iraq	63¢	78¢	$10	$13	+$2 (+25%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Over	49¢	48¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Austria	48¢	46¢	$10	$9	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$11	+$9	+90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$20	+$30	+149%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$6	+$4	+62%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$23	+226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	Jun 14	$10	+$4	+43%
Will Team Tidebound win The International 2025 Tournament?	Sep 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?	Aug 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 2AM ET	Aug 26	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 1AM ET	Aug 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Aug 23	$73	−$73	-100%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?	Aug 22	$89	−$89	-100%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?	Aug 22	$113	−$113	-100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?	Aug 22	$20	−$20	-100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Aug 21	$99	−$8	-8%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?	Aug 20	$10	+$3	+29%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$12	1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Iraq	63¢	$10	19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	48¢	$10	19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$11	19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$49	20h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	100¢	$10	23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$12	23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	61¢	$6	44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$8	44h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Tunisia	56¢	$10	45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	SELL Australia	100¢	$14	2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	BUY Australia	69¢	$10	2d
Will Team Tidebound win The International 2025 Tournament?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	286d
Will Team Tidebound win The International 2025 Tournament?	BUY Yes	4¢	$0	286d
Will Team Tidebound win The International 2025 Tournament?	BUY Yes	4¢	$0	288d
Will Team Tidebound win The International 2025 Tournament?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	289d
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	291d
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	291d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 2AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	294d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 2AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	294d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 1AM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$10	294d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY No	22¢	$73	297d
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?	BUY No	39¢	$39	298d
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?	BUY No	41¢	$50	298d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?	BUY No	17¢	$85	298d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?	BUY No	16¢	$4	298d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.55 · official $51.55 (match) · 41 history records